Energiakupla puhkeaa

Tunnustan, että olin myönteisen yllättynyt, kun Helsingin Sanomat kuvasi tänään etusivullaan Saksan energiapolitiikan suurta ongelmaa. Kun vihreä väki on ihannoinut Saksan Energiewendeä, sen ongelmia  on väistelty, peitelty ja selitelty parhain päin.  Siksi se keskustelu, mitä näinä päivänä tapahtuu on arvokasta ja välttämätöntä kuplien puhkaisua. Siksi myös palaan ajatuksiin, joita esitin viime syksynä aiheesta Saksan tilanteeseen liittyen.

Komission päätöstä poistaa uusiutuvan sitova tavoite on arvosteltu, mutta sekä ympäristön ja talouden näkökulmasta se oli välttämätön. Nyt siitä on vain osattava vetää oikeat johtopäätökset uusiutuvan energian tukien suhteen. Tiivistetysti sanoisin: ylisuurille tuuli- ja aurinkoenergian tuille Euroopan on sanottava ei, paikallista maltillista tukea biomassalle on taas syytä jatkaa.

Uusi linjaus ei tarkoita, etteikö uusiutuvaa energiaa pitäisi edistää. Pitää ehdottomasti. Mutta ylisuuret tuet ovat koituneet niiden aidolle kehitykselle vahingoksi, ja talouden ne ovat tärvelleet. Kilpailukykyisen uusiutuvan kehitystä ne ovat jarruttaneet: kannattavuutta ei ole tarvinnut hakea markkinoilta kun sen on saanut ilman ponnistuksia muutenkin.

Helsingin Sanomien kuvaama Saksan esimerkki on havainnollinen. Politiikan seurauksena tukkumarkkinoilla sähkö on edullista ja kuluttajalle kallista. Esimerkiksi Saksassa on suljettu melko uusia kaasuvoimaloita ja energiantuottajat ovat tehneet todella surkeata taloudellista tulosta. Syitä on monia, joista tietenkin taantuma yksi. Toinen on se, että markkinoille tuodaan koko ajan voimakkailla tukijärjestelmillä uutta sähköntuotantoa (aurinko ja tuuli), jotka kannattavat ainoastaan näiden tukien vuoksi. Ne polkevat tukkumarkkinahintoja, mutta valitettavasti asiakkaiden sähkönhinta on korkea. Tuet siis maksatetaan asiakkailla.

Itse sähköenergian osuus sähkölaskussa pienenee koko ajan. Meillä se on vielä kolmannes, samoin kuin sähkön siirto ja verot. Saksassa energian hinta on loppuasiakkaan hinnasta vain viidennes. Loppu on siirtomaksuja, veroja ja tukiaismaksuja. Koko kehitys on johtamassa siihen, että nyt pohditaan tukia – tai koko markkinamallin muutosta – jotta jonkun kannattaisi pitää edes voimalaitoksia käynnissä. Niitä, jotka sitten tekisivät sähköä kun ei paista eikä tuule.

Eurooppaan on luotu tavattoman kallis järjestelmä, joka toimii huonosti. Saksan energiakäännöstä on perusteltu harhaanjohtavasti sillä, että asiakkaat hyötyisivät. Tämä on ollut etenkin vihreiden mantra. Energiapolitiikka on saanut kansalaisten tuen, kun on väitetty, että nyt yksityiset ihmiset hyötyvät ja sähköntuottajien ”valta” tai asema heikkenee. Kokonaan on jätetty sanomatta, että hyötyjät ovat olleet rikkaita, maksajat köyhiä.

Tätä kierrettä voi kuvata Saksan hinnoilla ja tilanteella: Asiakas maksaa sähköstään noin 27-30 snt/kWh. Siitä noin 5-6 snt on sähköenergian hintaa markkinoilla. Muu on verkkomaksua ja veroja ja tariffimaksuja. Välttääkseen tuon kustannuksen asiakas voi hankkia aurinkopaneelin ja asentaa sen rakennukseensa. Se tuottaa sähköä noin 17-20 snt / KWh investoinnin elinkaarelle laskettuna. Asiakas siis hyötyy kun tuottaa itselleen sähköä noin 10 snt/kWh. Asiakas ei maksa veroja, sähköverkon ylläpitoa eikä syöttötariffeja muusta kuin verkosta ostamastaan sähköstä. Joku muu ne kuitenkin maksaa. On siis nostettava muiden veroja, siirtomaksuja ja tariffeja. Kannustin rakentaa oma tuotantoaan kasvaa, koska sähkön hinta verkosta ostettuna edelleen kallistuu.

Tämä kehitys on kiihtymässä ja kiihtymässä. Lopulta maksajiksi jäisivät vain ne, joilla ei ole seinäpinta-alaa tai pääomaa ostaa niitä paneeleja. Eli siis kerrostaloissa asuvat ja köyhät. Tulonsiirto köyhiltä rikkaille on ollut todellista.

Ja koko järjestelmä olisi koko ajan kalliimpi ja kalliimpi, koska tuotanto on kallista ja koska sähkön siirtojärjestelmästä pitää tehdä paljon joustavampi ja mittavampi. Mutta sähköverkossa sähkö on koko ajan ”halvempaa”, kun uutta tuotantoa syntyy koko ajan lisää. Kannustin pitää yllä muuta tuotantoa heikkenee. Mutta sen ei sallita poistuvan verkosta, jotta ei tule black-outia. Joku senkin maksaa, että voimalat seisovat käyttämättä.

On selvää, että uusiutuvan energian massiivisia tukia on alennettava.  Tähän suuntaan ollaan Saksassa jo menossa. Ensimmäinen fiksu asia Saksan syöttötariffeissa oli, kun niiden hinta aleni alle asiakkaan oman sähkölaskun. Ennen kuin tämä tapahtui, kenenkään ei kannattanut käyttää itse tuottamaansa sähköä, vaan myydä kaikki kalliilla ja ostaa halvemmalla markkinoilta.

Mutta lopulta tämä ei riitä. Jäljelle jää se epäkohta, että joku tuottaa itselleen aurinkosähköä lähes koko sähköntarpeensa. Silti hän ei maksa sähköverkosta juuri mitään, vaikka kuitenkin olettaa sen olevan käytettävissä täydellä teholla, kun ei paista. Verkon ja tuotantokapasiteetin ylläpito maksaa sitä enemmän, mitä enemmän on kaksisuuntaisia kuluttajatuottaja-asiakkaita. Ja veroja kerätään sitä vähemmän.

Todennäköisesti kehitys johtaa sähköverkon hinnoittelun muutoksiin. Oman tuotannon on tavalla tai toisella tultava verojen ja syöttötariffimaksujen piiriin. Valtioiden on alettava jarruttaa tämän hajautetun tuotannon massiivista rakentamista, joka perustuu siihen, että tuotteen arvo määrittyy markkinoilla tällä hetkellä täysin väärin.

Viime syksynä ennakoin, että homma loppuu, kun loppuvat rahat. Ehkä se on nyt tajuttu.

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