Blog
12.December 2009 - 22:50
The context worsens the situation
Steve McIntyre, the mathematical statistician who has launched the website Climate Audit, aroused interest in the so-called Yamal materials after having studied these more thoroughly and found these materials to be based on amazingly minor and one-sided data compared to the importance of their rendered value. As a consequence, discussion on the Web simply exploded and who knows, if it had led, for its part, to the CRU disclosures.
McIntyre didn’t say much about the CRU breaking, but having examined the material thoroughly, he disclosed the following in his blog the day before yesterday: http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/.
McIntyre’s message is more than embarrassing to the IPCC. Several scientists complained about the problematic nature of the messages that leaked into the public, since these kinds of messages give an entirely false impression when taken out of context. Words like “trick” and “hide and decline” refer to the normal professional jargon used among statisticians rather than to any intrigues. This sort of language should be understood in the context of the clarification of statistics and the interpretation of processes.
As McIntyre stated, in this case, it is no use returning the email messages to their contexts. In fact, it would only worsen the situation.
The story leads back to a meeting in Tanzania, where the IPCC authors had gathered for a meeting and were worried about the inclusion of Keith Briffa’s time series into the IPCC report, as this would “vitiate the message (of the report)”. The presentation of Briffa’s graphs was “a problem” and “a nice clean story” about a “climate warming that had never been experienced for over a thousand year or more” was now needed – until a decision was reached on an action that is now called by the phrase “hide the decline”. (Even a ridiculing song was presented on the Web: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk.
Here, go ahead, read and draw your own conclusions, the story is here.
http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/
If anybody now wonders about my motives, I have to say that as a politician, I have the right to expect absolute credibility and scientific neutrality from the IPCC. Now they are severely compromised. The decisions which should be reached at the Copenhagen Conference over the next week necessitate an open discussion.”
Steve McIntyre, the mathematical statistician who has launched the website Climate Audit, aroused interest in the so-called Yamal materials after having studied these more thoroughly and found these materials to be based on amazingly minor and one-sided data compared to the importance of their rendered value. As a consequence, discussion on the Web simply exploded and who knows, if it had led, for its part, to the CRU disclosures.
McIntyre didn’t say much about the CRU breaking, but having examined the material thoroughly, he disclosed the following in his blog the day before yesterday: http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/.
McIntyre’s message is more than embarrassing to the IPCC. Several scientists complained about the problematic nature of the messages that leaked into the public, since these kinds of messages give an entirely false impression when taken out of context. Words like “trick” and “hide and decline” refer to the normal professional jargon used among statisticians rather than to any intrigues. This sort of language should be understood in the context of the clarification of statistics and the interpretation of processes.
As McIntyre stated, in this case, it is no use returning the email messages to their contexts. In fact, it would only worsen the situation.
The story leads back to a meeting in Tanzania, where the IPCC authors had gathered for a meeting and were worried about the inclusion of Keith Briffa’s time series into the IPCC report, as this would “vitiate the message (of the report)”. The presentation of Briffa’s graphs was “a problem” and “a nice clean story” about a “climate warming that had never been experienced for over a thousand year or more” was now needed – until a decision was reached on an action that is now called by the phrase “hide the decline”. (Even a ridiculing song was presented on the Web: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk.
Here, go ahead, read and draw your own conclusions, the story is here.
http://climateaudit.org/2009/12/10/ipcc-and-the-trick/
If anybody now wonders about my motives, I have to say that as a politician, I have the right to expect absolute credibility and scientific neutrality from the IPCC. Now they are severely compromised. The decisions which should be reached at the Copenhagen Conference over the next week necessitate an open discussion.”