Blog
13.December 2005 - 05:24
More seeped information
Happy Saint Lucy’s Day!
I heard a couple of new things about the Montreal Conference today. The most alarming one was the information that last night Russia was negotiating for voluntary emission reductions. Besides the US, Australia and the developing countries, it looks highly likely that Russia, too, will not accept mandatory emission restrictions after 2012. The situation is serious, but it does not surprise me. I have noted this possibility, among others, in my article that was published in Helsingin Sanomat on 7 February. I wrote that Russia may withdraw from the convention, if it desires so. I also noted that, until 2012, we will finance Russia, which, if it so wishes, may withdraw from the covenant after that. I presume that the reason for this detachment is obvious: Russia will have no allowances to sell anymore.
In 2015, when the emissions of the developing countries have increased rapidly over 10 years and the EU emissions have remained approximately at their present level, some 20-25% of the emissions of the entire world may perhaps fall within the framework of the emissions obligations.
Russia, thanks to which the negotiations stretched over Friday and into Saturday morning, demanded in its late-night meeting that voluntary obligations must be taken into consideration in regard to Article 3.9. This may mean that Russia will not accept any binding obligations for itself after 2012, unless the large developing countries decide to accept them. Therefore, it seems that Russia is strictly applying the condition which industry has hoped to be applied by the EU and which the US, among others, has been applying all the time: the prerequisite being the participation of influential developing countries. It looks pretty likely that the post-2012 obligations will only be accepted, besides the EU, by Japan, Canada and some insignificant emitters. Thus, about 80% of the world’s emissions (in 2015) are exempt from all the obligations.
Published: December 13, 2005
http://www.korhola.com/2005/12/lisaa-tietoa-tihkunut/
Happy Saint Lucy’s Day!
I heard a couple of new things about the Montreal Conference today. The most alarming one was the information that last night Russia was negotiating for voluntary emission reductions. Besides the US, Australia and the developing countries, it looks highly likely that Russia, too, will not accept mandatory emission restrictions after 2012. The situation is serious, but it does not surprise me. I have noted this possibility, among others, in my article that was published in Helsingin Sanomat on 7 February. I wrote that Russia may withdraw from the convention, if it desires so. I also noted that, until 2012, we will finance Russia, which, if it so wishes, may withdraw from the covenant after that. I presume that the reason for this detachment is obvious: Russia will have no allowances to sell anymore.
In 2015, when the emissions of the developing countries have increased rapidly over 10 years and the EU emissions have remained approximately at their present level, some 20-25% of the emissions of the entire world may perhaps fall within the framework of the emissions obligations.
Russia, thanks to which the negotiations stretched over Friday and into Saturday morning, demanded in its late-night meeting that voluntary obligations must be taken into consideration in regard to Article 3.9. This may mean that Russia will not accept any binding obligations for itself after 2012, unless the large developing countries decide to accept them. Therefore, it seems that Russia is strictly applying the condition which industry has hoped to be applied by the EU and which the US, among others, has been applying all the time: the prerequisite being the participation of influential developing countries. It looks pretty likely that the post-2012 obligations will only be accepted, besides the EU, by Japan, Canada and some insignificant emitters. Thus, about 80% of the world’s emissions (in 2015) are exempt from all the obligations.
Published: December 13, 2005
http://www.korhola.com/2005/12/lisaa-tietoa-tihkunut/